Disclaimer : This articles is not about some imaginary continent called Westeros but about the real game of democracy being played out in India.
There is a very real chance that there will be no party or alliance will get majority on its own in the ongoing elections. Literally it will be no ‘one’ person becoming the prime minister. The seat will be open to so many contenders that it’s hard to name a single winner. MPs from UP may not want Mayavati, east may desire Mamta and south of India will have a whole gamete of leaders.
While bigger parties – pushed to side lines – will choose to support a minority government from outside.
The entire idea is not too far fetched as we already had the same game played in late 90’s. It’s from the destruction of Congress’ hegemony that BJP emerged as the real alternative.
The difference today is that both ‘not so destroyed’ Congress and ‘not so popular’ BJP might end up in opposition.
Most likely Congress will be too short to build an alliance anyway. Any attempt by it to support from outside will only allow BJP to have time to engineer enough defections to get a claim on Delhi within 18 months.
If Congress does not help in creating the next governments, smaller parties will flock to NDA immediate and help BJP back on the helm.
While it seems like a return of BJP anyway, it might not be the same case with Modi. While the PM candidate has had all his party leaders tamed to his tunes, the same will not be true for any alliance partner. With BJP weaker in these elections from Akalis to Sena , no one will be standing down. Manmohan Singh’s alliance helplessness may haunt BJP enough to sideline Modi in favour of more reconciliatory leader like Sushma Swaraj.
Congress too should start looking for smaller wins. With relative growth in the present elections it’s should start aiming for next round of State elections to follow. A weaker BJP in centre will create a lot of distress for its smaller units, an opportunity for Congress and even for left.
One person who is definitely playing the long game and therefore sure to emerge as a winner is Akhilesh Yadav. With Mayavati tied up in the union politics, his moves in UP will be unrestricted and unhinged. With a singular aim of taking down Yogi he can also expand into neighbourhood as Nitish weakens in Bihar.
We predict that the game of thrones you saw on TV will be nothing in comparison to the twists and turns you will see in power corridors of India in next two years or so.
May the best player win.
