As the race for United States (U.S.) Presidency reaches the last stretch, the United Kingdom (U.K.) and Europe are keeping a close eye on the latest developments in the U.S.
At the time of filing of this story, Democrat Joe Biden had claimed 264 seats and the Republican Donald Trump, who is also the current President of the U.S. had claimed 213 seats. In order to win, a candidate must win 270 seats. While Trump is seen as an aggressive and unpredictable leader, Biden is seen as a less aggressive, reasonable and predictable leader.
It is a well know fact that Trump likes the British Prime Minister – Boris Johnson. When Johnson was contesting as one of the contenders to be the Prime Minister of the U.K., Trump had openly extended his support to Johnson. Going by this equation, especially when U.K. is having backlashes in finalising a Post-Brexit trade deal with European Union (E.U.), the European nations would not be really happy to see Trump serving another term in the office.
Separately, the U.S. and Europe have also not been keeping some extraordinary relations in the past 4 years. In July 2020, Trump announced that U.S. will withdraw 12,000 troops from Germany in what it described a strategic move for better aligning its troops. While 6,400 U.S. troops would return home, the remaining to be repositioned to other The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members like Italy and Belgium. Trump believes that Germany’s spending on defence is too low and it is not viable to keep the U.S. troops posted there.
It was initially agreed by all alliance members that defence spending should reach 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 20204. Germany, along with many other countries, has yet to meet this target. This has definitely not gone down well with Germany and other European nations.
French President – Emmanuel Macron, who sees himself as the rightful heir to the mantle of European leadership after the retirement of German Chancellor – Angela Merkel, has already begun campaigning for the creation of a European defense force that could make Europe less dependent on the American military.
There are also reports that if Trump wins, he will end the NATO membership of the U.S.Biden, who has called NATO “the single-most consequential alliance in the history of the United States”, would work to reinvest in the alliance.
For U.K., having Trump re-elected is good in the immediate future. Trump is a very pro-U.K. ally. So, if a trade deal with Europe falls apart, Johnson and Trump can have a more friendly U.K. and U.S. deal. As a matter of fact, a trade deal between U.S. and U.K. is already underway. If Biden comes to power, the terms of the deal have to start from scratch. There are also speculations that if Biden wins, he may visit his European counterparts first, before meeting his U.K. counterpart.
In the long run, Biden would be a better for the U.K. because U.K.’s standing in the world is based on its participation in institutions and alliances, the very structures that Trump doesn’t believes.
Besides, the Paris Agreement which focussed on building an environment friendly and sustainable world, has been criticised by Trump. In 2021, U.K. is hosting a major Climate Change Conference and a willing U.S. could make all the difference to making that count.
Most importantly, we will have to see how U.S. and Iran relations change if Biden wins. After U.S. exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal in 2018, Iran started producing low-enriched uranium beyond the permissible limits of JCPOA. Subsequently, U.S. proposed to impose new sanctions on Iran, a move which was highly criticised by France, Germany and United Kingdom (U.K.), which is commonly referred as E3.
