The attacks on ‘Front Altair’ and ‘Kokuka Courageous’ have flamed potential conflict with Iran all over again. While US blames Tehran, Tehran hints at Saudies, the fact is that the forces at work may be very many.
UAE says ‘State Actor’ behind tanker attacks
Possibility of Iran as the actor behind the attack
While the chances of Iran being the actor is low. For almost three decades Tehran has followed diplomatic niceties and is not expected to abandon them for no reason at all. As the attack happened on a Japanese ship, while Iran was hosting Japanese PM Abe, if this is perpetrated by elements loyal to Tehran, it may be taken up by Tokyo to be nothing less than a declaration of war.
US has projected above video of Iranians disarming the mines as the proof of having put mines in the first place.
Then again blocking Strait of Hormuz has been a long standing threat from Iranians. They would not act on it unless this is the last stand that Revolutionary forces of Iran would like to take. The internal Iranian situation is not that bad and for all practical purposes the Tehran is not keen on inviting US for their invasion
Possibility of US behind to instigate hostilities
We have done an entire article for benefits to US from a war. However in the modern world it would be stupid for US to engage in something that is bound to be out in open in medium term.
Do wars win Democracies?
However the military build up by Pentagon in the region is not something that can be ignored
Role of Israel
Given the fact that US’ military build up is based on Israeli intelligence inputs, the country definitely knows more than anyone else as to who is responsible. Given Tel Aviv’s hostility towards Iran it may all be a Mossad plot.
However its highly unlikely that Israel will cause such an incident and potentially implicate homeland of jews all over the world in an attack on innocent civilians.
Saudi intent of breaking up its Shia enemy
This brings us to the most mercurial rulers of Saudi Arabia. Mohd. Bin Salman has already implicated his own embassy in murder of a political dissident. We know – for a matter of fact that – diplomatic ways do not matter to the crown prince. The attack on his pipelines by Iran supported Houdi militants may have been the reason for this attack and its timing.
Meet the new friend of Israel: Saudi Arabia
The KSA’s new found closeness to Israel also explains the intelligence inputs to US.
Irrespective the attack on civilian shipping by a state actor is a big statement to make. This is not seen from the days of trans-Atlantic shipping attacks by Nazis. If not resolved the repercussions can be extreme.
