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Russia to hold military drill in Belarus; may use it as smokescreen to invade Ukraine

Russia will soon begin 10 days of military drills, “Allied Drive”, in Belarus

Russia will soon begin 10 days of military drills, “Allied Drive”, in Belarus from Thursday, i.e., February 10, 2022, in a show of strength which security experts feel is designed to frighten Ukraine.

The Russian forces and hardware began arriving in Belarus in mid-January, with about 30,000 combat troops expected to participate in Allied Resolve. Two battalions of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and 12 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets have also been positioned.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has called it the biggest deployment of troops to Belarus since the Cold War. It is thought that Allied Resolve will include large-scale manoeuvres of airpower and ground troops to simulate an attack from a nearby NATO country.

The United States (U.S.) and NATO have warned that the drills could be used as a smokescreen for invading Ukraine, which is 150 kms. south of the Belarusian border. What’s alarming is that a similar unannounced military drill took place just before the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Also, the Belarus drills are unusual in their size and timing as such drills are usually not held in February.

Speaking on the occasion, a Former Ukrainian diplomat and Security Policy Expert at the Centre for Defence Strategies – Alexander Khara said, “The military presence is aimed at threatening Poland and Lithuania westwards, and Ukraine’s north. The message is that Russia is able to conduct an operation that could seize Kyiv.”

He further added, “They’re stretching our limited resources, preparing for a possible assault and conducting intelligence gathering to see what capabilities we employ and how we react. It sends the clear message that they have the goal, capability and political will to apply military force in Ukraine if the West don’t agree to [President Vladimir] Putin’s demands.”

As per the satellite images available, Russia has placed military hardware at locations within about 50 kms. of the Ukrainian border. The military units are armed with missiles, multiple rocket launchers and attack aircrafts. A Kremlin Spokesperson has said that Russia will withdraw its troops from Belarus once the drills are over.

Besides, Russia will also stage large-scale tank drills in several southern regions in the coming weeks, while six Russian warships were seen heading through Istanbul’s Bosphorus to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean for naval drills.

Also, Ukraine has announced it will hold its own training at locations around the country to test Turkish-designed Bayraktar drones, as well as Javelins and defensive light anti-tank weapons recently received from the United Kingdom (U.K.).

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