While west celebrates the Russian retreat from Ukraine, its far from over.
The endless supply of arms and ammunition to Kiev, miss seem to have turn the tide of war. However a closer look at the Russian retreat and you would discover, it’s all quite orderly. Since May, Russians commanders have prioritized life of their men over the real estate they defend.
The fact that Ukrainian’s outnumbered 8-1 or even 10-1 signifies amount of resources Kiev has pushed against Moscow. Lately, in every engagement Ukraine has lost multifold of its troops while Red Star banners have managed a (relatively) low casualty retreat.
In short Putin’s battle hardened troops are alive and well. The Russian support units too have used relatively inexpensive ordinance to slow enemy advances. In comparison Ukrainians are loosing lives and their supporters on verge of loosing control of their economies.
Talking to Moscow may is an appeasement
Most of the Western capitals have convinced themselves that talking to Russia is a waste of time and that it will be akin to appeasement policies towards third Reich. In doing so they find they have no alternative but to defend a 30 year old nation with everything short of a direct war
Oil – the real powder keg
It’s all but certain that all western economies – led by Europeans are headed towards a slowdown not seen in a century or so. The EU’s decisions to prioritize energy needs of its citizens over industry is creating a gap, no bond sale could fill. While Brussels is trying to still take a moral standing against Russia, the rest of world is quietly moving pieces to protect itself.
The recent capacity cuts by OPEC are only the beginning. They know the consumption is going to fall. They will try everything to ensure the dollar flows to exchequers within the block is maintained during the headwinds. Which means they will get into a direct conflict with Washington DC. It could not be overstated that a weaker US in Middle-East can create new destabilizations – all the while making oil out of reach for most of the industrialized world.
The Indo-Chinese Uncertainty
While India and China have their own problems, the present crisis may mean dawn of a new partnership in what can be their century. If they can play it right with cheaper Russian and Saudi energy supplies, get their manufacturing going and do not falter internally, the rest of the world will have to come to them for a recovery. While the US has already made a bad boy of Beijing, New Delhi is still being courted in western capitals. Indian’s on their part will try their bet to get the optimum deal that works for them. The Indo-China attitude to just watch out for themselves ensures that they can be the most uncertain for Western leaderships.
Russia is employing a WW2 strategy and it may work
The Russians are carrying an orderly retreat while causing significant slow burner damages to the enemy. The strategic depth they are displaying inside Ukraine is not for faint hearted.
The slow burn has all but destroyed all of Ukraine’s capacity for war. While Kiev seem to doing a land grab for an ultimate ceasefire within a month, its supporters are paying the price with high inflation and growing unemployment.
For Russians to win this war, all that is required is persistence. They may loose every battle, they may still win the war by merely being the side to not resign.
