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Pakistan suspends trade with India, downgrades ties

Indo-Pak relations downgraded by Islamabad to protest against annulment of Article 370 of Indian Constitution

India-Pakistan ties have hit a new low after India annulled article 370 from its own constitution. In a slew of soft actions against India, Imran Khan led Government in Pakistan has decided to :

“1-Downgrading of diplomatic relations with India. 2-Suspension of bilateral trade with India. 3-Review of bilateral arrangements. 4-Matter to be taken to UN, including the Security Council. 5-14th of August to be observed in solidarity with brave Kashmiris.”

National Security Committee (NSC) of Pakistan

The trade relations between the two countries are still in a relative infancy after being formalised with South Asian Free Trade Association (SAFTA) creation in 2006.

Indo Pak trade is still under $5Bn where as Indo-China trade is above $95Bn

Given the persistent enmity between the two nation states since 1948, bilateral trade has never bloomed. While the step may be high on rhetoric, it will not even pinch India’s $2.7 Trillion economy.

Similarly the downgrade of diplomatic relationship too is purely symbolic. If reports from High Commissions of both the countries are to be believed, police actions testing diplomatic immunity is very frequent and almost always tit-for-tat. It’s Indian subcontinent’s version of cold war where diplomatic relationship are purely to extend vested interests, by freezing them, Pakistan may do more harm to itself.

As for tabling the same in UN, India has already braced itself for a stormy General Assembly session in September. In our opinion, Pakistan will not be able to get any International support for its cause. As its closest allies have much more invested with India than with Ismalabad

  1. China is too neck deep in its trade war with US. Any aggression on its part may destroy its prospects in its largest export market outside of western influence
  2. Arab states (along with US of A) want India to not go back to Iran for its crude needs

There is no third ally of importance that Pakistan can hope to champion their cause.

In effect Pakistan’s NSC is playing to gallery of its own propaganda machinery.

Unless there is a massacre in Sri Nagar’s Lal chowk by Indian Security forces – there is no going back. A new dimension has already been carved by Modi and the new age of aggressive India is just being unveiled. Both Rawalpindi’ GHQ and Islamabad’s power corridors must realize that rules of game has been completely altered.

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