According to a research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), India may witness 2.87 lakh cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19) every day by the end of winter 2021, if no vaccine is found to stop the spread of the outbreak.
Titled, ‘Estimating the global spread of COVID-19’, the report has been prepared by researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management.
The study claims that India will be the worst hit country followed by United States (U.S.) with 95,400 cases per day, South Africa with 20,600 cases per day, Iran with 17,000 cases per day, Indonesia with 13,200 cases per day, United Kingdom (U.K.) with 4,200 cases per day, Nigeria with 4,000 cases per day, Turkey with 4,000 cases per day, France with 3,300 cases per day and Germany with 3,000 cases per day.
For their research, the researchers used the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered (SIER) model to predict the numbers. The SEIR is a standard mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis. The study is based on 3 factors. First, the current number of tests and response. Second, if testing increases 0.1% on a day-to-day basis from July, 2020. Third, if testing remains at current levels but contact rate or how many people are infected by one person, is estimated to be 8.
It also says that total number of cases across 84 countries could surge to 249 million and there could be 1.75 million casualties by Spring 2021. Globally, there are 1,17,97,213 cases and there have been 5,43,595 casualties. The researchers claim that the actual number of cases are 12 times higher, and casualties 50% higher than what has been reported.
Meanwhile, India recorded 22,252 fresh cases and 467 casualties in the past 24 hours, taking the total tally to 7,42,417 cases and 20,642 casualties. Maharashtra remains the worst hit State reporting 6,603 fresh cases and 198 casualties. The total number of cases in Maharashtra have rose to 2,23,724 and there have been 9,448 casualties. Tamil Nadu, the second worst affected State reported 3,756 fresh cases and 64 casualties. With this, the total number of cases have jumped to 1,22,350 with 1,700 casualties. The national capital is the third most hit place with 1,02,831 cases and 3,165 casualties. It reported 2,008 fresh cases and 50 casualties in the day.
Separately, Madhya Pradesh reported 409 new COVID-19 cases and 7 casualties today, taking the total number of cases to 16,036 and casualties to 629. West Bengal reported 986 fresh cases and 23 casualties in the last 24 hours. It takes the total number of cases to 24,823 and casualties to 827.
In other developments, the Chief Minister of Delhi – Arvind Kejriwal and Delhi Lieutenant Governor – Anil Baijal inaugurated the 500-bed COVID-19 Care Centre at Commonwealth Games Village in National Capital.
Taking it to twitter, Kejriwal tweeted, “Delhi govt’s new 500-bed Covid Care Centre at CWG Village will serve the people of East Delhi. It is a modern, comfortable facility that will provide the best care to mild Corona patients. Inaugurated it today over V-C with Hon’ble LG Shri Anil Baijal.”
Delhi govt’s new 500-bed Covid Care Centre at CWG Village will serve the people of East Delhi. It is a modern, comfortable facility that will provide the best care to mild Corona patients. Inaugurated it today over V-C with Hon’ble LG Shri Anil Baijal. pic.twitter.com/LnyZAr1kwS
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) July 8, 2020
Kejriwal has also directed the Health Secretary to share a detailed analysis of factors behind all COVID-19 casualties in New Delhi in the last two weeks. Delhi reported 736 casualties in the last 2 weeks.
