When the US goes to vote on November 3, 2020; world will be watch closely at what come in next. Trump has shown himself to be survivor and remains true to his core audience in the rust belt. He may again prove all the pollsters wrong and secure the second term.
Here are some of the biggest headlines that may follow.
NATO can be broken
With Turkey and France almost ready to shoot each other, US troops pulling out of Germany and Brexit seriously threatening the US lead European order, NATO could be broken without fixation.
If Trump get second term the answer is that the NATO will be a very different body that it has been in last Seventy Five years. While Trump has a knack of pushing things to their breaking point, he normally pauses before he actually breaks them. It will all boil down to a single question – Is a European Army Cheaper to raise and maintain or is it wise to pay US the protection money it insists. Angela Markel may have to answer this sooner than later.
Russia will not be happy
Even if Putin helped install Trump, they didn’t exactly get the royal treatment they would have had hoped for. The Russian relationship with the US has been far worse than any other administration since the end of Cold War .
If Trump gets elected – he will be looking at making history. Crippling sanctions on Moscow may be the easiest way to tell the future historians that Russian Collusion was a hoax by Democrats.
China will have to readdress it foreign Policy
There can be only one bully in any neighborhood. Trump has already shown that he likes to be one.
If trump gets second term, China will have issues all across the globe. Its Investments along the entire OBOR project will be in trouble. If US puts its entire might to discredit China, there is very little Xi can do. As a whole Beijing does not understand the concept of public opinion.
With US playing its best game and all its neighbors miffed, China will have to discover coy form of diplomatic art instead wolf warrior diplomats it presently employs.
India may reap the fall of China
As China becomes a boogieman in US’ business circles, it will be advantage India. US still need a place to manufacture everything. The Americans have already given a generational skip to manufacturing. The skilled work force is just not there.
While such blue collar jobs can move back to US, its not going to happen anytime soon – not till the time its vocational colleges start graduating a workforce that understands it in the first place.
Given the fact that even in China such a work force is increasingly being replaced by Robots, it will make sense for corporates to outsource the jobs to India instead of training and then firing a US workforce.
The US dream may be reduced to a dream
The Border wall, banning of long term visas, denial of green cards will all become policy of the US. The great dream that made US great belongs to the last century and citizens of LATAM should understand that they are no longer welcome in north.
