The Pakistani Foreign office is shouting on top of its voice that Pakistani Army has not provided men power to Azeri Forces – and are not fighting alongside them against Armenia.
The only problem is that no one believes them. After all Zahid Hafeez Chaudri’s predecessors too have shouted that Pakistani Army as never in Kargil or that Osama Bin Laden was never in Pakistan. The podium of FO is used to lies that its virtually impossible to know the truth.
However, if Pakistanis are having a direct play – it might cost more than they could fathom.
Reason 1 – its blind support of Turkey
Turkey’s regional ambitions are no longer a secret. It has occupied parts of Syria, supported ISIS, has challenged both Iran and Saudis while also getting in bad books of France and Germany. Frankly if there is any country that really lacks friends its Turkey.
The present Azeri vs Armenian conflict is being interpreted as, yet another power play, by Ankara.
The genocide of Armenians by Turks is not that old. In spite of Turkish efforts to deny its very exitance, world knows it and regional sympathies for Armenia run high.
If Pakistan is waving its crescent in Nagorno-Karabakh – its getting sucked into a rivalry that is going to involve both EU and Russians. Neither of whom will be forgiving to Pakistan as body count rises.
Reason 2 – Azeri might loose
Azerbaijan has a better equipped Army along with a much better economic resources to carry the fight further. It is still losing as it does not understand the might of Special Forces and guerrilla warfare waiting for them.
Pakistan understand this part of war and its SSG can potentially be a great asset, however it can also be a redux of Afghan wars where the same forces faced Russian operatives. This time around Russians will not stop.
Reason 3- Even if Azeri win, the following massacre of Armenians will force an EU response
Azerbaijan, much like Pakistan is a secular state in name only. If Republic of Artsakh were to fall it will certainly mean destruction of Stepanakert and massacre of its citizens.
Russia cannot allow it. EU will passively support Russian actions that will follow. What will follow will be an angry bear tearing down any opposition – Pakistani troops included. Also Kremlin will not stop at that – it will also collect its dues directly from Islamabad. Worse even EU can force a wedge between China-Paki friendship.
On the bright side Pakistan will have diplomatic support from Turkey in any future conflict with India. But that is it. Till the time Ankara serves in NATO, it cannot get directly involved against India.
If boys out of Rawalpindi thought it was yet another Jihad – they have got it wrong. Not one of their other friends (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and People’s Republic of China) like their actions. The faith that Pakistanis have played a game without even reading its rule book and it will cost them dearly.
