A century ago the Turks were pushed out from Western Asia, now they are making a comeback. As US and Turkey imposed Visa restriction on each other, the Lira tumbled and Borsa Istanbul 100 Index fell 4 percent a larger geo political picture is emerging.
The second largest troop contributor to NATO is on the receiving end of US sanction and that its giving it retaliating in kind is a nothing short of a political earthquake. This can start a complete waning of US influence in the region with Turkey, Iraq and Iran forming some sort of natural alliance against Kurdish homeland movement and taking their own course.
In some ways these events are a natural response to the destabilization of the region by US led invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein. The US strategic planners – in their usual myopic site missed out the larger picture where they helped create the monster of Islamic State and threatened the very concept of nation state. In a sense Iran was much more prepared for what to come for they have seen a similar rise of Taliban on their eastern boundary when US destroyed all forms stabilizing institutions of that nation.
The US had shown a major weakness in handling the entire Iraq-Syria Crisis and had entered a game in which it was going to lose anyway. Is ISIS were to persist, US were to be defeated; if it fell Assad and Iran would win the game and US were to be defeated; if Assad fell and Al Nusra and others formed a Taliban kind of regime still US were to be defeated. It was a battle which US fought for moral high ground, Sunni Araba states entered for liberation against Shias and Regional Minorities fought for survival. Only Turkey and Syria saw it as opportunity.
Iranians entered the war as saviors while in Turkey it was all about Erdogan.
It was the attempted coup d’état of July 2016 that shook the world. But coup turned out to be by the President instead of being against him. In the coming months purge in Turkey was much more reminiscent of Soviet leadership changes than anything in contemporary politics. With NATO being drawn into a dependency on Turkey for its operations inside of Iraq and Syria, Turks took it upon themselves to reinvent their domestic institutions.
Now that the internal politics has been almost sorted for President Erdogan started looking outwards. Germany bicker was just the start, deals with Moscow and Iran followed. His administration consistently worked at diminishing relations with US. Culminating in yesterday’s diplomatic barrage.
While future is hard to predict. Turkey will now start rebuilding Syria (It was always going to – irrespective of who won) and expand its influence into Lebanon. The alliance with Iran and Russians will ensure that Damascus will give up on its displeasure towards Ankara.
On economic front the repeatedly devalued Lira has already made Turkey an attractive gateway to Europe. With Syrian war coming to an end and Kurdish demands going into cold storage the political stability will return along with prosperity.
Erdogan may not be a Sultan yet, but he is working towards his desires in leaps and bounds. The Turks are coming back and this time the Janissary are still in barracks
