In recent memory, Pakistanis have had little reasons in the way of international headwinds that make them rejoice.
While no Pakistani daily completes its front page without an article demeaning India, reason for the present cheer are much more than a neighbour’s envy.
Reason 1: No possibility of Indian Misadventure into AJK/PoK
Almost the entire last year Pakistani establishments lamented on the possibility of Indians moving into Pakistani administered Kashmir and integrating it with rest of the state. Indian media did no favours by taking the rumours in its stride. Even direct questions to Indian home minister Amit Shah were answered with a hint of possibility.
The Indo-Sino standoff means that Indian Mountain corps and Special forces have their hands full in the eastern theater. On western part they will be in defensive formation only as New Delhi faces its nightmare of potentially two-pronged theaters.
Reason 2: Potential relief at FATF
As India-China face off, the powers of West – especially EU will not want to take sides. Pakistani diplomats will play this to their advantage by playing Indian changes of Pak sponsored terror as New Delhi’s attempt to oppose Chinese efforts for normalizing things with Pakistan.
This raises the possibility that the entire meet will be about having a status quo, keeping Pakistan in grey list with warning of blacklisting.
Reason 3: Better hardware for Pakistani forces from Iron brother China
Chinese are yet to share any cutting-edge military hardware with Pakistan. JF 17 is at best at the levels of F16s that PAF has been flying since 1990s. A possibility of a common foe can ensure better arms sales from China, which in turn mean more profits for the Boys.
Reason 4: Indians feeling miserable
Neighbours’ envy is very much there. Indian economy is amongst the worst performing, Covid is killing upwards of 1K Indians a day and now faced with a Himalayan challenge from China – New Delhi is certainly at a back foot. Its surprising that Pakistani diplomates are not showing their glee in public.
However,
The pragmatism dictates that the Paki establishment does not get all comfortable. While in their maps Islamabad can call Kashmir-China border as undefined frontier – the fact that it is very much defined with two Asian Power houses in eyeball – to – Eyeball staring match is hardly comforting to anyone.
Xi Jinping’s last-minute decision to cancel his Pakistan visit, underlines Beijing’s desire of returning to table with India. He has enough on his plate. From Taiwan almost ready to proclaim its Independence to Vietnam actively looking after her own interests, everything is eating into Chinese dominance in its back yard.
Also, India’s potential capability to sponsor asymmetric warfare against Chinese Communist Party by arming Tibetan dissidents is very real. While Pakistan can continue to rejoice for now, it must not let its guard down.
