It may be suggested that its only matter of time that the Taiwanese capitulate into surrender and accept Beijing to be master of their destiny.
Lately China has been beefing up its armed forces that can potentially invade Taiwan – Officially the Republic of China.
As per the news reports coming from mainland long range missile forces have now been equipped with brand new DF 17 – a hypersonic cruise missile that is yet to be battle tested. The recently acquired Russian S-400 air defence systems based on PRCs coastline can track and target Taiwan F16s as soon as they are airborne. PLA’s marine core based out of Fujian seem to be ready for war and PLA-AF is regularly conducting intrusion intro Taiwanese Air Space.
All this may suggest that it will be only matter of time that the Taiwanese capitulate into surrender and accept Beijing to be master of its destiny.
However, if may just be the dragon showing its teeth with little or no fire.
While Beijing still thinks Taiwan to be a renegade island sheltering runaway nationalists from the 1949 Civil war – Taipei’s territory is nothing like that.
First, ideological divide between the two countries is no longer that of Communism and Capitalism but that of Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) insatiate hunger for land grab versus a working democratic system.
Secondly – the island is no pushover that can be subjugated without appreciable resistance.
The PRC may have numerical and technological advantage – the fact that PLA has not fought any war with its ‘modernised’ ‘professional’ army escapes no one. If a war were to happen – PLA will be fighting for its pride with the Taiwanese – for their loved ones. Big difference that can upset any spreadsheet calculation
Third – The defence treaty of the Island with US. Irrespective of a Democrat or a Republican administration – US cannot allow Taiwan to fall. It’s a buffer that keeps PLA away from Hawaii – and keeps them in check for most of the Pacific. If PRC is stupid enough to engage RoC, we will have a full mobilization from Seventh fleet.
So why is Beijing threatening Taiwan?
Because President Xi needs to. He is almost on his way to become Chairman of the CCP and the country. A position previously held, only by, CCP’s founding-father Mao.
This is the closest Xi can come to become Huáng dì – emperor of China. And to do this he has to have something greater than what any leader of China has ever become. He has to become realization of China’s will, thought and aspirations.
Taiwan’s subjugation will provide that.
So, should Taiwan be scared…?
Yes. While a full-scale annihilation of ROC is something Xi may want to avoid, he will breath enough fire to hopefully call Taipei into surrender. It translates to attempt by PLA-AF to create an air dominance over island. Shooting incidents may occur and will be utilized to further put military pressure on Taipei to give in. After all, when world’s largest Army (and arguably one of the most modern one) knocks at your door, you can only hope to survive.
Unless the American are ready with a Pacific coalition to protect their friends – and a wider section of both the US’ populace as well as her legislature (congress) supports the war efforts, China will win this contest.
When?
We recon soon. China is counting on divisive politics of US to keep Washington at bay. White House’s relationship with Tokyo, Seoul, and even Canberra are at historic lows. The discords in US – should Trump loose and refuses to leave – will be an ideal time to launch the offensive. We would put the date around 10th of November 2020.
The Options before Taiwan
In fact, all Taiwan needs to Survive any such aggression is do nothing. In their right minds no commander will land troops on the island to take it over. Also, a mass extinction of the Population – is also out of question. Taiwanese strategy should be to preserve her forces in purely defensive posture. Ensure that any misadventure comes with a high price – and provide enough time for US congress to authorise President and /or President Hopeful to come to rescue.
What we know is that Xi will not stop his mongering bluff unless a world power calls it off. Millions of life will be stake and it might all fall again on shoulders of an American President to save the world.
