The sad answer is yes. War time leaderships of victorious and inconclusive sides are always treated above war heroes themselves. The conflicts bring in nationalist unification of country, brand all opposition as traitors to motherland and pave an easy victory in any proceeding elections.
Unless the said confrontation is itself a cause of misery, its an easy way out for any and all beleaguered leadership is a democratic setup.
As USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group keeps moving towards Persian sea, the Pentagon has augmented the fleet with USS Arlington, which transports marines, amphibious vehicles, and rotary aircraft, as well as the Patriot missiles
The same seems to be the case of potential US-Iran conflict brewing in Persian Gulf. As Trump get ready to face another election, an easy victory over Tehran can only help his cause.
As US continues to elevate its physical presence in the region, old hawks in Washington seem to have a daily dose of Argo and the humiliation the incident caused. Juxta positioning it with failure of Clinton in attack on US’ Libyan embassy, there is a clear victory waiting for the republicans.
For most Arab nations this is music to their ears. These Sunni majority autocracies have always favored complete intolerance over the Shia minorities. To them, democratic Iran presents a problem with roots in 680 AD massacre of Hussein’s army in Karbala. The annual condolences of Moharram being the case in point.
The US remains blind to realities of region. The fact that Shia’s are 15% of all Muslims in world and almost all of them see Iran to be their lone voice falls on deaf ears in Washington DC. The Tehran supported insurgencies in the Middle East are not just a product of Iranian regional ambitions, its also a promise for an unfulfilled dream that has evaded its target audience for over 1400 years. Being one of the only functioning democracies in the region does not cut any ice with Trump or his advisers.
In his infinite wisdom, President Trump is about to carry a mission to defeat all Shiite movements in the region without realizing that he is about to be sucked into a conflict that pre dates his own beloved country by almost a millennia. He also doesn’t understand that such a conflict can very easily become a Shia-Sunni conflict on a global scale, sucking countries like India and Pakistan in its wake.
Then again, no campaign against Iran can be painless. Savak (Iranian Intelligence) is much more competent than CIA in the region. Combined with its assets of battle-hardened guerrilla forces from Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Yemen, it can lay a siege against American interests that is unheard of in recent times.
Iranian forces, though ineffective in any offensive action, can build up a blood soaked defence against any US led intervention.
Also, there is the life line of energy flow through strait of Hormuz. Both Indian and Chinese economies will suffer greatly if a war breaks out, taking out Asia completely from path of growth and can trigger a global slowdown.
There are so many reasons why war against Iran is a bad Idea, but hey when a President hast to Win, he has to wage war!
