India to witness COVID-19 peak in November 2020, lockdown delayed the peak
According to a study by Operations Research Group constituted by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), India will witness its peak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in November 2020.
The study claims that during the peak period, there would be severe shortage of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds and ventilators.
The 8 weeks nation-wide lockdown has helped in delaying the arrival of peak period and has given an opportunity to strengthen the healthcare infrastructure and public health measures in the country.
The lockdown not only shifted the arrival of peak period by an estimated 34 to 76 days, but also helped in bringing down the number of infections by 69%-97%. In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November 2020. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months. This shortfall is estimated to be 83% less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures. However, if the effectiveness of public health measures can be increased from 60% to 80%, the epidemic can be mitigated.
As per the model-based analysis, the additional capacity built up for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period, the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70% and the cumulative cases may come down by 27%. In terms of mortality, approximately 60% casualties were prevented and 1/3rd of this mortality prevention is attributed to the reduction in unmet need for critical care as a result of the intervention. The overall economic health system cost of the outbreak is estimated to be 6.2% of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
As far as health infrastructure in India is concerned, there are 958 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1,67,883 isolation beds, 21,614 ICU beds and 73,469 oxygen supported beds. Also, there are 2,313 dedicated COVID-19 Health Centres with 1,33,037 isolation beds, 10,748 ICU beds and 46,635 oxygen supported beds. There are 21,494 ventilators available for COVID-19 beds. Besides, India is adding 60,848 more ventilators in its healthcare infrastructure.
In other developments, the Home Minister of India – Amit Shah held a meeting with the Chief Minister of Delhi – Arvind Kejriwal today, as situation turns intense in Delhi. Also present in the meeting were the Minister of Health & Family Welfare in India – Dr. Harsh Vardhan and the Lieutenant General of Delhi – Ail Baijal.
Several key measures were announced in the meeting. First, COVID-19 testing will be tripled in the next 6 days. Second, testing will be done at every polling station in containment zones. Third, 500 railway coaches with 8,000 beds will be provided to Delhi for shortage of beds. Fourth, a committee of senior All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) doctors will be set up to guide small hospitals. Fifth, 60% of beds in private hospitals will be provided at lower rate. Sixth, house to house health survey will be done for contact mapping in containment zones. Seventh, a joint team of doctors will inspect heath system and its preparedness in Delhi.
Taking it to twitter, Amit Shah tweeted,
देश की राजधानी दिल्ली में कोरोना संक्रमण को रोकने के लिए मोदी सरकार कटिबद्ध है।
— Amit Shah (@AmitShah) June 14, 2020
आज स्वास्थ्य मंत्री @drharshvardhan, @LTGovDelhi और मुख्यमंत्री @arvindkejriwal व वरिष्ठ अधिकारियों के साथ बैठक कर दिल्ली की जनता की सुरक्षा व इस संक्रमण को रोकने के लिए कई महत्तवपूर्ण निर्णय लिए।
Sharing his thoughts, Arvind Kejriwal tweeted,
Extremely productive meeting betn Del govt and Central govt. Many key decisions taken. We will fight against corona together.
— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) June 14, 2020
Meanwhile, India recorded 11,929 fresh cases and 311 casualties in the past 24 hours. Maharashtra, the worst hit State recorded 3427 fresh cases and 113 casualties. The total number of cases in Maharashtra is 1,04,568 and there have been 3,830 casualties. 1,974 fresh cases and 38 casualties were reported today in Tamil Nadu. Total number of cases in the State now stands at 44,661 and there have been 435 casualties.
Delhi registered an increase of 2,134 fresh cases and 57 casualties, pushing the case count to 38,958 and casualties to 1,271.
As per the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW), there are 3,20,922 cases in India and there have been 9,195 casualties.Source: The Times of India, India Today
