When it comes to COVID-19 impact – it’s the manufacturers of civilian aircrafts, more than the operators that will be destroyed. Boeing is in doldrums; Airbus may not survive, and smaller aircraft manufacturers were already on their way out.
Producing an air worthy Aircraft is a niche accumulated over decades of failures, learnings and experiences from success. A lot of it is controlled by patents but more than that every big aircraft manufacturer of the day is an institution.
This all may be on their way out. Boeing already nose diving under the colossal failure of 737-max and Airbus having grounded its ambitions of A380 could not have asked for a worst situation.
With the overall downsizing of the airline market – with no visible buyer in sight they company and their expertise can not survive without government bailouts.
Enter the COMAC
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). should be a dreaded name for western Aircraft manufacturers. While likes of Boing are drawing overdrafts of their bank accounts their Chinese counterpart – COMAC is flush with funds.
It has already built over 40 ARJ21 Xiangfeng regional jets. Already in service with at least 8 airlines in China. While news is difficult to come out of PRC, we believe company is still manufacturing 20 more to deliver to client who will not cancel their orders despite absolute demise of the air travel.
Then there is the C919 having flown for the first time in 2017. We believe that there are over 300 orders for the aircraft with at least 90% remaining solid as ever even during the Covid-19 downturn.
Both ARJ221 and C919 are a source of national pride for the PRC, and the country continues to inject cash to ensure their development.
The company has been collaborating (e.g, paying money for experience and patents) with the likes of Bombardier and Boeing.
However, it’s the partnership with UAC (Russia) that should be worrying for west. The Russians have always had a good hardware at a very modest price; however they never had the sales and marketing acumen of the west. With almost four decades of experience and broader understanding of tech-transfer between Moscow and Beijing, COMAC can become a behemoth in no time.
If west were to allow dis integration of Airbus or Boeing – even partially they will not only loose a legendry company but a vital piece of their infrastructure. The Chinese are coming, and it will be fooling to assume that they will be just waiting at the gates.
