While the Corona Virus is a deadly virus – no doubt about it, the disruption being caused is unprecedented
Black Swan Events are unexpected by definition, but the global panic caused by Corona Virus is unforeseen. While the Corona Virus is a deadly virus – no doubt about it, the disruption being caused is unprecedented.
While every new Virus that Human’s interact is potentially disastrous and brings back memory of Black Death that ravaged much of Europe during the middle ages the fact is that it is no longer the middle age. SARS, MERS, Ebola even Hepatitis all remain as deadly as they were at the first contact, however large sections have developed/are developing immunity. The medical community, while not having an effective antiviral or immunization understands how these diseases work as such are able to save life by enabling individuals’ bodies to fight better.
Since now the transmission is in incubation period, there is no way to know who is infected and who is not. Therefore, the chances are higher that containment of 2019-nCov will fail. Unless the Virus mutates further it will be a threat to almost 1% of global population for next 3-7 months.
Still there seems to be no strategic discussion on how to carry on with this threat looming. Neither complete ignorance nor complete lockdown is the answer in the slowing down economies like India (and for that matter rest of world). In fact, Saudi Arabia is issuing lower oil consumption warning in China. The panic is spreading.
When somethings as small as wearing a face mask, especially when one is coughing/sneezing and washing their hands for 20 secs for 4-5 times a day can defeat this virus, there is a cause for Advertising blitz. The governments must understand this century is lesser about mobilizing armed forces but more about social media warriors.
