The Great Plague of 14th century was a defining point in Human history. The biggest problem with the disease was that no one knew how it was spreading or how to treat it in the first place.
The modern corona virus bears hall marks of the same. It almost certainly has roots in Human-Animal contact, till date we do not know how the Virus is spreading or for that matter how to treat it. Like everything else the life cycle of the threat too has a compressed timeline. While the Great plague took 30-40 years to find victims in European continent, the Corona virus has jumped to over 25 Countries and Territories in as many days.
It’s not the death toll but the Socio-Economic disruption that the 2019-nCoV is causing which can draw direct parallel with the plague.
People from Wuhan stuck outside the city can easily understand the plight of refugees from Pisa in 1348. History will record remarkable similarities as to how the two groups were treated by their nations and how they were treated like criminals by the authorities tasked to save them.
It’s the economic disruption that bears a greater hall mark. The empty streets of Sicily in 1348, that of Portugal and England in 1348 must have been same as that of Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou, Xiaogan, Jingzhou and Yichang. The disruption caused by closed borders is cascading supply chain headache for all major companies.
From Apple to Alibaba and Amazon to VW everyone is hurting. The results are for everyone to see. Travel industry in the entire APAC and Australia-New Zealand region is already devastated. Thailand may even be looking at appreciable percentage losses in GDP.
The crude Oil build up is like never before. With Chinese demand on brakes, the rates are crashing. Even with OPEC production cuts, only prices may be stabilized, the overall losses due to slower offtake of inventory.
Even the US-China trade deal is hurting. With stagnating demand, the US exports can barely expect to pick up.
The disease spread is not slowing down, neither is the slowdown. It’s time for authorities to start getting ready for next round – social unrest. This virus is capable of killing more than individuals, like black death, its targeting economies and communities as well.
