The non stop rhetoric by both Kim and Trump has put the far eastern region in a flash point of a nuclear war. Do not be fooled by US’ show of strength or that of Russia and China that surround the heretic nation of North Korea. Pyongyang has prepared for this war for over three generations, irrespective of what Trump’s forces can rain down on the nation, they red star flags of North Korea will not be downed without causing massive casualties in South Korea and Japan. Worst part is Kim’s army has enough conventional ways to destroy Seoul and much of their surroundings without falling back to Nuclear options.
But for people living thousands of Kilometers away from the dispute does that really matter? Answer may surprise you in ways you might not have imagined.
The obvious weak links are that of electronics supply chain that can be devastated in South Korean areas within minutes of breakout of hostilities. A couple of year back when Thailand was flooded, prices of memory shy rocketed across the globe. If South Koreans face a disruption the results will be catastrophic not only for tech companies but also for much of the world. The technology that runs on the electronics built in East Asia suns the entire globe.
The second part is losses in Human terms. The North Korean regime knows its missile can be intercepted on their way to US mainland, however if its entire fleet of diesel submarines were to carry a nuclear weapon each with intent on its physical delivery to US mainland via an amphibious/sleeper cell operation, US main land will be hit, and hit hard. Make no mistake, nuclear weapons of North Korea are to serve only one purpose – enforcement of peace. In absence of peace, every man, women and children of the country has been bred with thoughts of sacrificing themselves while causing maximum casualty to the enemy. If a nuclear exchange becomes a possibility US mainland will be hit. This can take the entire geo-political discourse of the planet into an uncharted territory. Even if a clear victor emerges from the resulting nuclear winter, use of Nukes will become a part of military strategy and they will be used with ease in future conflicts.
The third and most important part, it will destabilize the region beyound anyone’s comprehension. In event of war, Japan will at least be targeted by North Korean nukes. China will then not wait for Japan to revert to its Nippon origins, it will try to intervene decisively to prevent Japanese rearming. The chances of this conflict will be higher if Us emerges weaker post the Korean war. And if the allies in the region are under attack, everyone from Taiwan to Vietnamese might join in. Even Indians cannot be ruled out in later stages of such a broad conflict.
Then there are the Russian interests and its fleet in Vladivostok. From the looks of it, Moscow will block any UN led intervention, making any act of war a US sponsored one. Russians can play a constructive role by establishing peace zones between the hostile parties – much to chagrin of Washington. But such a move will receive massive ‘private’ support out of South Koreans and Japanese. In event of war Russians will most likely choose sides after end of hostilities.
In any scenario we do not foresee any hope for Trump winning at all. Trump must have had been advised with it and Kim knows it. Is still US continues to push the peninsula with empty threats, they will become real in no time and no one on this planet will like them