When Imran Khan talked about the ‘kind of weapons’ India and Pakistan have, he talked MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction.
A threat of a Nuclear Winter that could cover Indo-Gangetic plains is very real and its approaching us at a rate not seen before. Lets not be fooled by the release of Wing Commander Abhinandan or that by ‘peace initiatives’ from Naya Pakistan. We are humiliating a nuclear armed country that never forgot 1971 defeat.
The matter of fact is that one can choose their friends, pick enemies but have no choice when it comes to our neighbours. So the big question is what do we have do about Pakistan.
Who runs Pakistan?
Pakistan is a state owned by its armed forces. The Pakistani forces run Real-estate Businesses, Petrol pumps, Luxury Hotels, Heavy Machinery and so on. The Armed forced of the country potentially have a sizable chunk of the Pakistan’s GDP in their pocket.
It’s all about Money
Traditionally the armed forces have used India’s threat to their advantage. The threat perception made it impossible for anyone to raise questions about Army’s economic interests, it Generals have always been above law and destined to retire rich (or become Presidents).
That changed once Chinese came in with the OBOR initiatives. The amount of money generated in the projects was multifold to that Afghan Opium trade or that of local economy.
It’s the Chinese who tamed the Pakistanis
President Trump’s claims notwithstanding, it was Beijing that called off Pakistan armed intrusions. Pakistan’s CPEC is one of the few working examples of One Belt – One Road initiatives. Any further escalation would have had been really bad for the project. Further the trade with India too would have suffered irreparable damage. In the light of the US sanctions it was not a right time for China to watch a war in its neighbors
Will Pakistan be aligned to the ‘New Normal’
We have no reason to believe that Pakistan is going to accept the ‘new normal’ of Indian Armed forces’ conventional superiority. The Paki-Nukes were supposed to blunt that edge. The entire idea was to hide behind a Nuclear shield while bleeding Indian with extremists. That has clearly not happened.
The New Normal is not something the Generals of 6th Largest armed forces want or accept. As such its just a pause. Inter Service Intelligence will find out a new way to bleed India without getting blamed. Our guess will be resurgence of Naxal violence in India.