Pakistan is looking at a very real possibility of defaulting on its international economic commitments. The state has which has had been facing horrible balance of payments with China, has also vociferously closed its doors to IMF loans and is looking at a record fall in agricultural output and related exports. Its this perfect storm that General Qamar Javed Bajwa had warned about in his October 11, 2017 while addressing a seminar on ‘Interplay of Economy and Security’ in Karachi.
On the east of Pakistan some of us may be happy that Pakistan is looking at an imminent collapse, the fact is that no one with their sane mind is going to let a nuclear armed, Islamist nation fall from grace. What we have is an opportunity for various players to address their own long term concerns.
China for one, is sure to get into play to protect an enhance her interests. However Indians have absolutely no strategy to play in Islamabad. Unlike what the world would like to believe, we do influence each other in a multitude of ways, India remains the nations that receives one of the highest Foreign exchange payments from Pakistan. Business aside, there has been no discussion of possibilities that the present economic vulnerabilities may open and the advantage that India can take with its proxies in Iran and Afghanistan.
Economic interventions may be a better way to deal with enmity of the two nations, than any weapon of mass destruction can ever be. The weapon race of South Asia is also partially resulting from the fact that Pakistan is known to world for all the wrong reasons. A prosperous Pakistan is less likely to use its Nuclear arsenal than an impoverish one. Prosperity on its own can also result in higher levels of education and an effective fight against internal extremism. Every long term objective of Indian foreign policy can be achieved if timely intervention is made to rev up the halting wheels of Pak economy.
The failure to intervene would also result in actual territorial expansion of China to of western borders and the Sino generals will claim Pakistan as little more than a colony. Its time for Indian Diplomatic corps to get into action, find and invest in long term progress of western neighbour